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Sunny Skies or Storms?
Project Weather Reports

By Johanna Rothman

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Summary: Long-time advocate of status reports, Johanna Rothman has come across a new way of reporting the movement of a project using something we experience everyday--the weather. In this week's column, she sheds a little sunshine on this new technique, which demonstrates the status of a project a lot like meteorologists announce current weather conditions.


Infosys

I've long advocated test managers having a mission of assessing the state of the project and reporting on it. This assessment compares where the project is to where it should be—not including audits of the project or the process. To be honest, I don't care whether the project manager or the test manager assesses the project on a regular basis—only that someone does it.

A project dashboard explains all the details about the project state . And, in most organizations, people need to understand what the data means. What better way to lift the fog of confusion than to present your information in a concise way everyone will understand? And everyone knows weather. Weather reporting is great technique to explain the project state assessment.

Some may use the traffic light model--red, yellow, and green--to denote the project’s state. This model shows today’s state, but it’s hard to see where the project is headed. I haven't found the traffic light useful, due to the static nature of the assessment and the limit of three levels to denote project state. And unlike traffic lights that automatically change, projects don't change unless the project manager and the team act to change them. Projects tend to continue in the direction the team is heading.

Most senior managers want to see a weekly project status, but don't want to wade through a project dashboard. They prefer a quick status update that shows where the project is and where it’s headed.

That is an assessment, and it needs to help both you and your audience understand where the project is and where it’s going. A weather report gives you a quick perspective about the project—where the project is versus where it should be—the project "weather." If the weather declines over time, and nothing is done to resolve the issue(s) one could predict that the project will continue to get worse (forecast future project weather).

Say you're on a project that has few risks and is proceeding on schedule. You'd give that project a full sun. But imagine your risk list is increasing daily, and you're not sure whether two features will be completed on time. Although the schedule hasn't slipped, you are sure it will. Say it’s early in the project, and your test team can't run--never mind run successfully--the number of tests they thought they could. You'd probably give that project a partly cloudy designation. After several weeks of partly cloudy, you might move to cloudy. And if the project risk list is increasing, the developers are spinning their wheels, and you're finding more and more defects, you might select rain.

The weather report model uses assessment to predict project progress, as if the project has a season. The prediction arises from our experience with the weather; seasonal weather doesn't change much day by day. Even if there are days with rain, snow, or abnormally high or low temperatures, the weather generally continues on as expected for the season.

A project progresses in the same way. You may encounter a problem you can fix on a project, but if you encounter problem after problem, you're not going to stay with your original assessment. As weather icons change (or remain the same), readers will be more aware of the project’s status and may want to understand the dashboard data in more depth.

Status Description
Sunny The project schedule is on target.
Mostly Sunny There is minor project schedule concern, but the schedule can be met.
Partly Cloudy There is schedule concern; the schedule can be met by putting extra efforts.
Cloudy There will be difficulty meeting the schedule.
Rainy To meet the schedule would take great difficulty.
Severe The schedule cannot be met in any situation.
Figure 1: A sample list of criteria for a weather report. Provided by Rodney Thompson.

Credible Weather Report

Weather reports models, like actual weather forecasts, can lose credibility if they change dramatically from week to week unless something dramatic has changed for the project. Problems that could change a weather report in one week include losing a significant percentage of people to other work, a missed vendor deadline, or realizing late in the project that the architecture won't support the planned feature set.

Another way to hurt credibility is to use less-than-professional weather icons. In the same way that your project dashboard needs to be clear to your readers, the weather report icons need to add to your credibility, not diminish it.

From Project Data to a Weather Report

If you're already gathering a variety of project data--schedule data, velocity charts, defect trends, test coverage, people assignments, and risk list--then the weather report is your best assessment of the overall picture. If you're not collecting that data, resist the temptation to use a gut feeling for the weather report. Instead use progress toward release criteria for the weather report.

Frequency of Weather Reporting

The goal of the weather report is to help people understand the project assessment and avoid surprises. Projects with more than two months left should have a weekly weather report. At some point--certainly by the project’s final month--or near major milestones, you may need a weather report a couple of times a week.

Because managers are busy and don't always have time for the details, consider weather reports to communicate regular project assessments. Select your weather icons based on analytical data and make the criteria for the icon clear.

Acknowledgements

I thank Rodney Thompson and Esther Derby for their reviews of this column, and Thompson for graciously providing his criteria for each of his weather report icons (see table above).

Further Reading



About the Author
Johanna Rothman, a regular StickyMinds.com and Better Software magazine columnist, is a consultant who enables managers, teams, and organizations to become more effective by applying her pragmatic approaches to the issues of project management, risk management, and people management. Johanna is the author of Hiring the Best Knowledge Workers, Techies & Nerds: The Secrets and Science of Hiring Technical People and is the coauthor of Behind Closed Doors: Secrets of Great Management. She is a host of the Amplifying Your Effectiveness Conference. Johanna has presented at STAREAST, the Better Software Conference & EXPO, and Applications of Software Measurement conferences. You can reach her at jr@jrothman.com or by visiting www.jrothman.com.

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StickyMinds.com Weekly Column From 03/27/2006 

Member Comments
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Comment:    
by John Daughety 4/7/2006

Many times I have been able to communicate complex issues or difficult ones using an analogy of some sort, and this one is a great example of that process at work. Especially for management people who do not understand software development at all, a good analogy can be their "window" into this part of their business. I also emphathize with Tony, whose traffic light analogy is robbing them of trending or predicting capability and actually opens up the opportunity for flawed reporting - such openings do kill the effectiveness of any dashboard concept. At a recent SPIN workshop I saw a very interest idea for a single Excel chart...Read On

Author's Response:
4/19/2006    
John, I like the idea of the Excel chart. As you said, as long as the analogy draws other people in, and it's based on something tangible, almost any technique is useful.

 
 
Comment:    
by Nick Olivo 3/31/2006

We started using this type of system several months ago. I was skeptical initially, and at least one member of my team felt this type of report was a complete waste of time. The thought was that no one would read the reports, and this would be little more than a CYA document. However, when we began distributing the reports, we got immediate, positive feedback from people in both development and upper management. People are watching the weather reports and working very hard to keep the weather sunny. Higher ups are reading the reports and are gaining an insight into the projects that they've never had before. We've even extended this practice...Read On

Author's Response:
4/2/2006    
Nick, thank you for explaining your experience with weather reporting. It's been my epxerience also, that the more feedback people receive about their projects, the more they work to make the project better.

 
 
Comment:    
by Prakash Marar 3/29/2006

The analogy sounds interesting; however I was wondering giving six different state of “weather” of your project makes much sense than just to understand what is going on. It would be nice if we add more analysis such as the “wind from east brings the clouds”, or a depression down FL brings severe rain..etc. The forecast is accurate here in Midwest, but the way it changes (after a sunny morning, you get a heavy shower late in the afternoon, and in the midnight you get to see some snow…:)In a project, I would like to know what causes the changes..

Author's Response:
3/30/2006    
Prakash, I use dashboards for more information and weather reports for the brief version of state. I certainly like more information, but I've worked with many managers who only wanted the briefest version of the "facts." In a project, I also want to know what causes the changes.

 
 
Comment:    
by Tony Giovenali 3/29/2006

I work in an archaic IT department in an very large retail company in Australia. The preferred management reporting mechanism is the traffic light system you mention. It bugs me no end as there is no trending and therefore predictive analysis. Most projects like to travel along at green until they can't deny things are wrong, then they move into the "deep red" region. Never to return. I like some of the concepts in this article. Especially the period for reporting being weekly and becoming more frequent as the deadlines near. I also like the examples of how a project may move to cloudy/raining eg. a vendor missing a deadline (seems...Read On

Author's Response:
3/30/2006    
Tony, glad to hear that you think this is worth trying. If it fits for you, I'd love to know what happens.

 
 
Comment:    
by Michael Hale 3/28/2006

While your weather analogy works for most people, there are those of us (many of whom live in Oregon), who think sunny days are anathema, and perfect weather is overcast or drizzly, and a storm is a welcome relief. So a project report of "Sunny" means its status causes grief and "Severe" indicates a great day. ;-)

Author's Response:
3/29/2006    
Michael, as an East-Coaster, this never occurred to me! Thanks for the levity :-)))

 
 
Comment:    
by Anne Simoncelli 3/28/2006

Thanks for the nice, extensible analogy. Just as the local weather report is much more accurate than the USA Today version that spans the whole country, this method would probably work best at a smaller "local" level. Otherwise you are going to have to report things like "mostly sunny in the valleys, with areas of clouds, partly cloudy over the ridges, with several small areas of tornadoes and a chance of flash-flooding..." and by that time, you might as well drop the weather analogy and just say where the project needs work! Bigger projects might use seasonal weather analogies - for example, I am currently emerging...Read On

Author's Response:
3/28/2006    
Anne, glad you found the analogy useful. Levels of weather reports can work, especially if management wants to know about something in particular. Good luck with your project emerging into spring :-)

 
 
Comment:    
by Fred Chan 3/28/2006

It's may be a fresh approach in the beginning, but I think it will be more realistic to tag with conventional timelines and words, instead of this subjective iconic representation. Bottomline, we will need to know how heavy is the rain, before we decide whether if an umbrella is needed.

Author's Response:
3/28/2006    
Fred, if words work for you instead of pictures, that's fine. For me, the key is to have a common vocabulary and understanding of the project. Pictures can sometimes do that, words can too. Whatever works is fine.

 
 
Comment:    
by Gunasekarran Veerapillai 3/27/2006

This method is definitely different and more helpful than the traffic light, where we do not know what will happen tommorrow. I have seen continous green lights which suddenly turns into Red one fine morning. This forecasting model can be improved/customized by the project managers as required. Thanks

Author's Response:
3/28/2006    
Gunasekarran, I agree that the sudden turn into a red traffic light is not useful. Glad this provided you food for thought.

 
 
Comment:    
by Joe Strazzere 3/27/2006

This weather analogy is cute, but you said "What better way to lift the fog of confusion than to present your information in a concise way everyone will understand?" I doubt that everyone will understand the difference between: - minor project schedule concern, but the schedule can be met. and - schedule concern; the schedule can be met by putting extra efforts. (so in one case, extra efforts aren't needed?) Also between: - difficulty meeting the schedule and - would take great difficulty (what's the difference between "difficulty" and "great difficulty"?) I would also expect to see...Read On

Author's Response:
3/28/2006    
Joe, Everyone's situation is unique, and having many levels of reporting may not fit for you. But I have worked on projects where we did want a number of levels of detail.

 
 
Comment:    
by Mike Whittaker 3/27/2006

Hmm, not really convinced on this one !

Author's Response:
3/28/2006    
Mike, sorry I didn't inspire you to try this right away.

 
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